Sunday, 28 September 2008
Nando Parrado: The 'right' decisions
"Brilliant, the universities say. Brilliant decisions," Nando tells us. But he emphasises that they were barely decisions at all, more like instinct.
Instructing the slowest member of the three-team party that went for help to return to the crash site wasn't based on a theory of management, and didn't emerge from a process. It was simply the decision they made, and it was the right one.
I can't help thinking - if it's not a bit odd to compare the work of a comfortable New York intellectual to extremes of experience like this - there's a bit of Malcolm Gladwell's Blink in this.
Nando Parrado: Luck, destiny and the ability to react
Later there's a counterpoint to this in the sheer luck that allowed the passengers to survive; there were three points of impact (moving at more or less full speed). After the second, the aircraft slid 25,000 feet without hitting any rocks at all.
And after that we get into how the survivors began to organise themselves.
Nando was clear that he 'isn't a teacher', but order is emerging from the way he tells the story. Loosely: The universe will deal indiscriminately with you; the important thing is having the resourcefulness to take control in the aftermath.
He's telling us a story, though, so it's entirely possible there are 503 different interpretations elsewhere in the room...
Nando Parrado: I shouldn't be here...
I shouldn't be here. I should have died on a glacier thirty-six years ago.
This is Nando Parrado's opener.
He's not wrong. His aircraft crashed into a mountain at cruising speed, and at cruising altitude. As he points out, that more or less never happens.
He and the other survivors are the only
The future of Advantage...
But John does refer to the opportunities for retail agents in the wake of XL (see also Terry Fisher in the partnerships session).
An 'Integrity' slide pops up which is pertinent to this - 'transparency' 'agent friendly' and 'reputation' are the keywords, and John mentions Advantage's hard stance on non-principal bed banks.
There's some talk about tour operating too - Advantage isn't going to move into it, because 'we have supplier partners who do it better', but it will continue to provide tools for agents who wish to pursue dynamic packaging.
So far it feels as much a sales pitch as a statement of strategy, though; and perhaps that's the right approach for a period of instability...
Update 29/09/08 - Here are the key announcements our chief reporter Juliet Dennis pulled out of John's session (or just read her full story):
- Plans for an ATOL for selected members
- Outsourcing of back-office functions
- A new trust fund facility
- Campaigns to raise brand awareness and consumer confidence in agents
Partnerships: The undercutting that wasn't
Marc explains that it isn't always their fault, and - more importantly - that Thomas Cook offers online price matching to Advantage members. Richard says Hoseasons do too.
It seems a little odd that anyone wouldn't know about something like that. Perhaps it's time for an Advantage e-marketing alert on the subject...
Partnerships: A brief quote-a-thon
Julia on the break with Triton:
People talk about size, but it's also about what you do with it, it's about performance...'
Terry Fisher on Stephen Freudmann's assertion that Advantage won't survive:
'I'm not sure where Stephen Freudmann is coming from, and I haven't been for many years...'
Richard Carrick's response:
'Stephen 'Robinho' Freudmann, who thought he was going to Chelsea and ended up at Man City...'
Partnerships: 'A renaissance on the high street'
This follows on from a discussion of maintaining partnerships, and being selective about partners, during which Terry Fisher of Gold Medal mentions the company's decision not to work with Zoom or XL.
Julia's answer seems to be mainly print point-of-sale materials, and to an extent this is fair for a business weighted towards retail.
But what about customers that arrive on your website? This sits oddly with the previous session (booking online) and I'm half surprised Richard Carrick - who presented it, and is on the panel here - doesn't pipe up.
Terry Fisher of Gold Medal goes further:
'Renaissance is the right word. There's a renaissance going on on the high street'.
Gold Medal has seen 'huge' growth since XL, he says, and this is 'an opportunity to fight back against the internet.'
Now that bit sits really oddly with the last session...
Partnerships: 'We're here to sell' - oh, and about discounting...
The take-home seems to be 'We're here to sell' - anything that takes the burden of other business elements away, be it marketing support from operators or Advantage negotiating with suppliers, is a boon.
Is anything else key? Yes, of course...
- Not undercutting the agent
- Getting parity in pricing
This will resonate with those who were in yesterday's cruise session...
Booking online: What needs fixing, and how can Advantage help?
'Diverse' is the first thing he says - some, like Direct Line, are doing well; others aren't nearly as advanced.
Kevin brings in Dan Caplin from Click With Technology, who chaired the technology session earlier.
What key points need fixing, then?
- 71% weren't displaying prices
- 80% weren't appearing on search engines
Obviously Colin talks about rolling out white-label online booking technology for members. He points out that the growth of business branding within Advantage - 80% of its member agencies now carry their own branding - is a potential boon in SEO terms.
Unfortunately we're running short of time, but there's just enough for Richard Carrick to put a word in for e-marketing, which he believes can help you convince someone 'in Basingstoke on a rainy morning' that they ought to take a break.
The catch? They have to be targeted, relevant, look good, and be backed up by a bookable website. Which takes us back to the question Colin was just answering...
Booking online: Slave to the web... but in a good way
...says Hoseasons boss Richard Carrick.
Hearts probably sink around the room. Who wants that?
But an instructive slide appears: A travel homepage with video of a user attempting to use it at the bottom right of the screen. (Update - I think it was actually an old Hoseasons page. Bold choice.)
He's not getting it: There's too much text, he's not sure what to look at. He sounds confused.
No, it's worse than that: He just sounds bored.
Point made. Pass the manacles...
Booking online: Richard Carrick on how the travel market has changed
You had a sequential, time bound process. You knew how consumers were going to
behave. Arguably we forced them into that kind of behaviour... The way business
came in was very predictable, and you had known ROI
Ah, yes. So what happened?
Up come stats on low-costs: 6m seats in 1995, 90m today. The majority of these seats are being sold online, observes Richard.
Up come stats on holidays: The number of people taking multiple holidays rather than one big one.
And here's internet penetration: It's in 60% of all households. Broadband's in 50%.
'Lump all these trends together and you see what's happening to the market,' says Richard.
Indeed...
Booking online: What travel agents have in common with GPs...
'The fact is,' says Kevin, 'they probably don't.'
So how do agents deal with that?
Perhaps we should ask GPs, who suffer exactly the same problem...
Technology: Click With Technology on Advantage member websites


Kevin's off writing this up, so I'll add a link to some stats later - broadly, they were a mixed bag; but Dan emphasised that the most prevalent problems were mainly 'easy fixes'.
Update: Here's the link to Kevin's write-up.
Saturday, 27 September 2008
Video: Agents on the spot on day one
TW managing editor Martin Couzins grabbed a few agents outside yesterday's speed dating stint, and asked for their thoughts on the XL failure, the break with Triton and the day's best sessions...
(Update: We also interviewed a certain Greg Dyke about his thoughts on the travel industry. See below.)
Photo: Greg Dyke chats to Kevin May (Travolution)

We were taping this, so we should have some video for you soon...
Cruise: The discounting problem...
Discounting comes up, inevitably - and it brings the room to life.
It simply isn't going away, says Giles, and points out that
- Preventing it is price-fixing
- Commission varies by 3-4%
- Cruise passengers are loyal, so you can still benefit from repeat sales
The original questioner comes back, complaining that he has lost three good clients to agents selling at brutally low prices on board ships.
"If we hear of that happening, we'll remove them from the ship. We've done that in the past," says Giles.
"I'll give you some names," comes the reply.
The questioner goes into more detail: first-time cruisers are fine, but more experienced passengers have come in quoting prices up to £1,000 below the agency's.
"How can you build a cruise business if we are forced to sell at less than net?" comes a follow-up from another agent.
This is an interesting counterpoint to the picture of selling cruise we got in the introductory presentations, though John McEwan points out that Advantage will be doing more to help its agents become more competitive in the sector in the coming years.
Cruise: It's up to you, you know... but cruiselines are here to help
In the third cruise sesion presentation, Silversea's Maffalda Barreta speaks softly but hits hard:
"You shouldn't be waiting to be asked for a cruise. You are the expert."
"No agent has any excuse for saying they don't know anything about cruise."
Hold on, though -
"Us cruiselines are actually jolly nice people" - and Maffalda isn't really berating the crowd, she's simply pointing out how much product, training and information is available to agents.
Later on she says, "You might be wondering, 'What cruiselines have ever done for me?'" and there's a kerfuffle at the front as Giles and Jo yell various answers ('Ship visits'! 'Education'!).
Yes, it's staged - but it's well-received by the audience.
Cruise: Jo Rzymowska on selling the right cruise

Jo Rzymowska shares a good anecdote on the importance of selling the right cruise to the right person:
On Independence we had an issue with a guest who was a Cunard passenger. He insisted that a member of staff acta as a butler for a week. He was a Cunard passenger, and what he needed was that level of service. He'd been sold the wrong cruise.
And if you sell a customer the wrong cruise, Jo points out, you've lost them.
Once again, this an opportunity to point out the variety of product available on the cruise market...
Cruise: Size does matter - bring on the extra capacity...
"It's a supplier-led market," he says - operators put product into the market, and consumers respond.
So there you go.
There are some compelling statistics pulled out, though...
- Cruise accounts for just 3% of UK holidays sales. In the US it is 6-7%
- UK cruise sales in 2008 are expected to top 1.55m
- 9.5m indicated they would cruise in the next five years (yougov)
In conclusion, says Giles, 'size does matter' - and he's talking about the sheer size of the market. With that, Jo Rzymowska, whose cruiseline knows a thing or two about size mattering, takes to the stage to deliver some tips on grabbing your share.
Leisure travel case studies: Five-point round-up
- You need a goal (and it needs to be realistic)
- You need to plan (be flexible, and include your team)
- Measure everything
- Adapt to change (take risks, and be prepared to fail)
- Focus on leadership and people
The fifth point arguably ushers an elephant into the room, especially given Willie Stewart's comments about paying more for the best: What about the state of travel training and qualifications?
Are there enough of those candidates out there, and can credit crunch-squeezed businesses afford to hire and retain them?
Leisure travel case studies: Willie Stewart on staffing
And he says it with an echo of what Meon Valley Travel's James Beagrie said about business plans. Willie says:
I don't have a great passion for figures and accounts...
How do you get around that? You hire someone good, and that chimes with willie's general staffing tips:
- Hire good people and look after them
- If it costs more to hire someone good, do it - it will pay off in the long run
Hats off to CBT
So fair play to CBT International Travel for pretty much admitting that they didn't much of a business plan until 12 months ago.
Chief exec Michael Churnside is heartwarmingly unassuming and brutually honest when he says if the company hadn't overhauled their approach to running the business it would be "in the skip".
A fantastic approach to getting in with the locals in their home town of Rossendale, Lancashire, has paid off and is one of the key elements of their strategy.
Leisure travel case studies: The importance of a business plan
David Moon, who is chairing the session, points out that many (if not all) people in travel will relate to this:
Business planning is boring and laborious ... sitting by a screen isn't my forte, I love dealing with people.
The answer? Get everyone involved in developing the plan, of course - which will probably help you avoid Greg Dyke's 'in spite of management' syndrome.
Another interesting factoid: When James took his business plan to one of the big high street banks, it was the first travel agency business plan the branch had ever seen.
(Why should we listen to James? He's developed Meon Valley from a standard retail unit with six staff to a 24-hour business that also deals with corporate travel and medical emergencies, and employs 30 people.)
Anyone can have ideas - ask Stephen Merchant
Anyone can have good ideas, says Greg."That's a good lesson for business..." interjects Jeff, and I'm almost surprised to find he's still here, so warmed up is the Dykester.
Then he's very much back in the passenger seat as Greg recounts the story of BBC trainee Stephen Merchant coming up with The Office - which, trivia fans, Dyke believes is the best show produced under his tenure.
Some things might explain Fame Academy
Hummm. Fame Academy anyone?
Sweeping statement of the day so far...
Internal communication is more important than external.
Always? And regardless of the type, size, strength and location of the business?
To be fair, I can well believe it is/was true in the thronged, labyrinthine corridors of the Beeb...
John Simpson, Kabul, and the importance of the backroom boys...
It was seen as 'a great coup' if 'slightly overplayed', he says (I remember the latter point of view being quite, er, prominent), but:
The real story and the real heroes were the guys who brought the satellite gear into Kabul
Apparently they came from Russia in a truck, got shot at on the way, and decided to hire 20 mules and walk it to be safer.
They got there on time, and Simpson got his coup...
More pertinent comments about change
He actually thinks change is an evolving process (he even hints that forever going on about it - whoops, sorry Jeff - is not the best thing to do) but there are certain things that are inevitable, especially when it comes to staff.
- Some you get rid of.
- Some you marginalise.
- Some you get onside.
Greg Dyke: A short quote about management...
Asked about his early days at the BBC, Greg Dyke says he inherited a staff inclined to think
We achieved what we achieved in spite of management.
What a frightening thought. A cautionary tale for a conference at which, because of the state of the market and Advantage's break with Triton, will inevitably be preoccupied with working - and sticking - together.
Don't chop the kids' party?
"It was our way of giving something back," he says.
During a downturn, he says, it's the one thing that gets the axe.
Dyke doesn't say so, but raises enough of an eyebrow to suggest that it would not be the best thing to do.
Simon Ferguson: Adding value as cheap holidays dry up
Customers have to make some big choices about what consitutes value - the era of cheap travel is over.So: What's travel's equivalent of the red tick that turns an uninspiring £5 white t-shirt into a must-have £25 one?

There's a pertinent quote from a former Harley Davidson boss:
We don't sell motorbikes. What we sell is the ability for a forty year old accountant to wear black leather, ride through a small town and have people be afraid of him.HD clearly do sell motorbikes, but the wider point stands...
Quoitoid #1 - Profanity in leadership
“People often behave when they get a new job like the managers they have worked for before.”
“They assume that being a boss is being a bastard.”
A little taste of what it was perhaps like trying to run the BBC after the morale-sapping days of John Birt, Greg?
Opportunities in a downturn
Simon Ferguson: Findings from the 'State of the Nation' survey
Thanks to the internet, I can give you a direct link to the findings (pdf), but here are some top-line bits:
- Leisure agents reported a good year, but there's evidence this was down to value rather than volume of sales
- Two thirds memebers see the internet as an opportunity, not a threat
- Half of Advantage members consider themselves 'tech-savvy'
- Niche, luxury and experience are big growth areas for leisure businesses. These play to the strengths of independent agents, Simon points out.
- Business agents expect airline issues and the economy to dominate the next five years
That's not wholly surprising - the survey was conducted before the collapse of XL...
Introduction: If you're happy and you know it, fold your arms
"Notice that some of you are right over left, some left over right."
He's right.
"Try it the other way round," he suggests.
And suddenly we're all thinking about change. It's hard.
He follows up with a quote from Keynes, to the effect that it's not developing new ideas which is hard; it's jettisoning old habits.
Jeff also challenges us to think about which part of ourselves we dry first after leaving the bath or shower.
I'll let you know how that goes tomorrow morning.
Obama + Advantage: Desperate for change
Jeff Grout, conference moderator for the weekend, clearly believes in change.
His opening monologue for the weekend used the word "change" a whopping 23 times.
The big question for delegates being urged to change this weekend will, ironically, focus precisely on the two phrases courtesy outlined above.
* If this is change we need, how do we do it?
* If this is change we can believe in, who is going to lead us?
Friday, 26 September 2008
Tips from the conference #1: Never miss a branding opportunity
We (that's me, chief reporter Juliet Dennis and news editor Michelle Perrett) have just seen John McEwan in the reception of our hotel, and he seems pleased with an appearance on Radio 4 today.This was nothing to do with the, er, new drinks range; John was talking about the cost of holidays.
I'm 99% sure this will have been a slot on today's You and Yours [here's the iPlayer link] - but our publisher blocks iPlayer so I can't double-check. I'll try to confirm it later.
The last thing you need before an overseas conference is for UK Air Traffic Control to go up the Swanwick
Flights out of Luton and Heathrow in the South East and Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh were affected after the software problem at NATS in Swanwick.
BA still has a few problems out of Heathrow.
But with 250-odd delegates pouring into Barcelona today from the UK, McEwan et al will be mightily relieved it wasn't more serious.
Phews all round.
Friday, 19 September 2008
Download the Advantage Conference programme...
There are also a few speaker biographies... so if you've been wondering who this Greg Dyke fellow is, here's your chance to find out.Monday, 15 September 2008
Here's what to expect...
I'll be posting previews of the event, plus live coverage of the scheduled business sessions on Saturday 27th and Sunday 28th.
Look out for a few photos and video clips too.
If you want to get in touch before the event, email me at nathan.midgley@rbi.co.uk.
And if you want to get in touch during the event, I'll be the chap at the back of the room with a laptop.
In the meantime, here's some useful stuff to get started:


